Source: WikipediaIn the category of bad ideas, let’s turn to this suggestion
Senior Democrats mull Al Gore’s nomination
Plans for Al Gore to take the Democratic presidential nomination as the saviour of a bitterly divided party are being actively discussed by senior figures and aides to the former vice-president.
How about picking the person to drop out of the race first because they had the least number of votes amongst the three candidates, and make them the winner?
I mean, why not pick the guy who lost in 2000 to secure defeat in 2008? Proven track record (Sorry to McEwan @ Shakesville) but really, how bad do the Democratic Party top brass fear this potential victory to overrule all of the votes cast for Clinton and Obama just so they can put a younger white guy up against an older white guy?
Did they see the score cards for the primaries? How Obama and Clinton were mobilising more people in the primary than Old Man McCain could muster? Or, to be blunt, has the thought of Clinton or Obama actually winning suddenly brought an en masse bout of cold feet?
If the Democratic Party drafts Gore to the presidential candidate because neither Obama or Clinton won the vote outright, they’ll be calling Senator McCain “Mr President” in record time. Two candidates in a closely contested battle for the leadership ousted by the Party leadership will bring unity - a unified Obama/Clinton supporter camp feeling entirely pissed off and staying home.
I’m not sure you’re giving Gore the credit he deserves.
1. He only narrowly lost against Bush 2000, and arguably under dubious circumstances
2. 2008 is a different time from 2000. Global warming has been elevated in status as an almost presumptive truth. Even the republicans have accepted it as a crucial election issue – Mccain and Huckabee have both stated their commitments to address it. Can you imagine how Mccain might measure up against Mr Inconvenient Truth and Nobel Prize Laureate?
3. Re: the primary scorecard – primary contests gauge the support of candidates among the party’s base. Come election time, dem primary voters are going to vote democrat even if it was Mondale Vs Reagan, let alone a Gore v McCain contest.
4. America is war weary and sick of the administration. This election is going to punish the GOP no matter what.
5. Betfair is paying Obama $1.28 to get the nomination, but $2.18 to win the election.
Compare, paying Gore $18.50 to get the nomination, and only $21 to win the election.
McCain is $2.70 to win the election.
This means the betting market is saying in the improbable chance Gore gets the nomination, they’re backing him to take out McCain – over, in the probable chance Obama gets the nomination, he has a proportionally less chance (though is still the favourite) to beat McCain.
1. When it comes to counting the US elections, I always return to the losses Gore suffered in Arkansas and Tennessee as the deciding factor in the vote. With those two home states (clinton/gore states), there was never a Florida to factor into the equation.
2. I’d hate to see the damage that the environment movement would suffer at the hands of the Republican election machine. Swift Boat Veterans for Inconvenient Global Warming Truth springs to mind. There is a history of Democratic candidates getting monstered on smear tactics by attempting to rise above, but not actually rebutting sufficiently where/when it counted.
3. My belief is that Gore being parachuted into the party because it was a close race between Obama and Clinton would be a major slap in the face to the supporters of Clinton and Obama. It would drive down turn out, and it would hurt the party, and would disenfranchise a large number of people who are turning out because it’s Clinton or Obama.
4. 22% of American respondents were still picking Iraq as a high enemy. There’s a leverage base there that’s going to be hard to counter unless it’s actively addressed by the Democratic campaigns.
5. I had $10 on Obama when he was 7 to 1 at Centrebet.
Centrebet has OBAMA 1.95, MCCAIN, 2.85 and CLINTON 4.25 to win the election.
Still, I don’t doubt that if Gore had started the match, he’d be well close to winning it. I say well close, because I think he’d still be in the hunt against Obama and Clinton, and that a three way tie would be on.