Here’s my prediction for the 2008 October Surprise. First, the lead up.
Sarah Palin’s speech where she mentions her eldest son, Track.
Play by Play Timeline
15 seconds into the clip: Date check September 11, 2007, Track enlists.
48 seconds into the clip: Date check September 11, 2008, Track’s unit goes to Iraq.
In the time elapsed between Track’s unit going to Iraq, and the US election, there is a 54 day window of opportunity for the Republican presumptive Vice Presidential Nominee’s son to be killed, wounded or maimed in action in “the service of his country”.
I’m calling it here and now: Track Palin will be the October surprise to rally the “patriot” vote as he is killed or wounded in action in Iraq. It would be exceptionally easy to arrange for it to happen through something as basic as a calculated troop movement of his squad into a known red zone, or just planting an IED somewhere “hostile” that he’s sent to patrol. It’s a big war, and there’s plenty of ways to do this easily if you’ve got the motive, money, and no regard for human life.
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Proposition 8: When asked to do the improbable, some achieve the seemingly impossible
2008 – California Proposition 8: Ban on Gay Marriage
Yes – 5,376,424 (52%)
No – 4,870,010 (48%)
2000 – California Proposition 22:Ban on recognition of same sex marriages
Yes – 61.4%
No – 38.6%
That’s a near 10% swing in 8 years against one of the largest coordinated campaigns by out of state influences. California voted for 61 percent in favour of a ban on gay marriage which, when over turned by the courts, created the freedom to marry.
Support for Proposition 8 was down 10% from Proposition 22. The defending team conceded a 10% swing despite the massive resource push into the fight. They gained no ground on what they had in 2000, they lost substantial ground from where they stood, and they had to fight like mad to hold onto a slender majority.
Given the seemingly impossible challenge of 12.4% swing required to stave off this attack on individual rights, the electorate mustered up a near 10% swing, (which in political marketing terms is this side of a miracle when dealing with an issue with such a well resourced opposition)
Now the margin is 2.1% for a 50.1% majority vote to support same sex marriage.
The battle was lost today in 2008. The battle for tomorrow is a 2.1% margin from the campaign teams that have a 10% margin gain under their belts already. That future is winnable, because despite the massive resources the various opponents of same sex marriage brought to their fight, they still bleed massive numbers of supports, and a huge slice of the electorate. Their time is running out, and they just saw their A-game only narrowly scratch out a win
For same sex marriage supports, it’s only a 2.1% margin left to convert. For the opponents, given they can’t defend a 12% lead? They’re running out of options, time and support base.